出口退税政策调整对中国出口影响的实证分析
内容提要：从2007年7月1日起，中国大规 模下调了出口退税率。本文运用双差法（Difference in Difference），对出口退税率降低引起的出口变动进行了实证分析。结果表明：出口退税率下调对“易引起贸易摩擦的商品”出口增长率负影响显著，对 “高耗能、高污染、资源型”产品的出口增长率负影响不显著。对政策动态影响和对多次政策调整的分析进一步验证了这一结果。本文据此认为该项政策部分而非全 部达到了预想的效果。本文的结果对于定量分析汇率变动对出口的影响也有帮助。
关键词：出口退税；出口增长率；双差法；汇率
The Effect of Tax Rebate Policy Change on China's Exports: An Empirical Analysis
Abstract: On July 1st, 2007, China cut down on tax rebate rate for one-third of its export goods, a large-scale policy change in the post-WTO era. Using Difference in Difference (DD) method, we conduct an empirical analysis of the effects of the change on China’s exports. The result shows that export growth rates are significantly reduced for target goods categorized as “subject to trade disputes”, but not for those “highly-energy-intensive, highly-polluting and resource-based”. Robustness checks on both dynamic and multiple policy effects support this result. We conclude that the policy only realized part of its expected goals. The empirical results also shed light on the effect of exchange rate change on exports.
Key Word: Tax Rebate; Exports; Difference in Difference; Exchange Rate Effect
JEL Classification: F13, F31, H25